As the 2008 rugby union Tri-Nations series continues today with a match between South Africa and Australia, things look grim for the Wallabies. Not so much because Australia’s last match was a 39-10 loss to New Zealand, but because Australia is playing in South Africa and it is historically very, very hard for the away side to win in the Tri-Nations. In the twelve previous years of the series prior to 2008 (the tournament began in 1996). As our chart below shows, The home side historically tends to win in home matches. Up to 2007, the home side has won about 72% of its matches (not counting one draw in 2001):
For the opponents in today’s match, the home ground advantage is even stronger, as our second chart shows. While New Zealand has managed to win just more than half its away matches over the history of the Tri-Nations, Australia has only won 20% of them and South Africa has won even fewer:
The lesson: If you can get an even bet on the home side in a Tri-Nations match, take it…especially if the All Blacks aren’t visiting. For a reminder of that key exception to the Tri-Nations home ground advantage, have a look at highlights from Jed Thian’s gleeful Alternative Rugby Commentary coverage of New Zealand’s 19-0 road win over South Africa last weekend (Caution: Rude language, offensive humor, etc.):
